The F-22 Raptor, once hailed as the pinnacle of air superiority, faces an uncertain future. Despite its unmatched stealth, speed, and combat capabilities, shifting military priorities, soaring maintenance costs, and advancing technology threaten its long-term role.
Here are 10 key factors shaping the Raptor’s fate—and why its days might be numbered.
1. Lack of a Firm Replacement
The F-22 Raptor is a powerful fighter jet, but it doesn’t have a clear replacement lined up. (ref) While new aircraft are being developed, none are ready to take over the F-22’s role just yet.
This uncertainty leaves you wondering what will happen to the Raptor as it ages and requires more maintenance.
2. Budget Constraints Affecting the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Program
The government has limited money to spend on military projects, which impacts the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
If the budget shrinks, it could slow down or even stop the development of new fighter jets that could replace the F-22. This means you may see the F-22 around longer than expected, even if it’s not the best current option.
3. Decision to Retain Block 20 Raptors for Training Value
Some older Block 20 Raptors are being kept in service because they are useful for training pilots.
By using these older jets, the military can save money on training while still preparing new pilots. This decision adds to the uncertainty of the F-22’s future, as it may continue flying even when newer jets are ready.
4. Rising Maintenance Costs
As the F-22 ages, its maintenance costs are going up. Keeping the jets in top shape is becoming more expensive, which can strain military budgets. (ref)
If you think about the long term, high maintenance costs make it harder to justify keeping the F-22 operational, especially when money could be spent on new technology.
5. Delays in the Development of NGAD
The development of the NGAD program has faced several delays. (ref) These delays mean that new aircraft won’t be available as quickly as hoped.
This situation leaves F-22 in a bind, as it keeps it in service longer than planned, while new technology is still far off in the future.
6. Recent Investments in F-22 Upgrades
The military has recently spent money upgrading the F-22 Raptor. The U.S. Air Force plans to spend almost $8 billion to upgrade the F-22 Raptor.
This money, spread over five years, will give the Raptor new abilities it needs, like infrared search and track (IRST) and stealthy fuel tanks.
However, this investment also begs the question on whether it’s worth spending so much on an older jet instead of focusing on newer aircraft that could replace it in the future.
7. Strategic Considerations Regarding Air Dominance
Air dominance is important for military success, and the F-22 has been a key player in this area.
As global threats change, the military must think about how to maintain control in the skies. This leads to an indecision if the F-22 is still needed to secure air superiority, (ref) and it could remain in service longer than expected, even as new technologies are developed.
8. Uncertainty about the Future Role of Unmanned Systems
Unmanned systems, like drones, are becoming more common in military operations. There’s uncertainty about how these systems will fit into future air combat scenarios.
If unmanned systems take on more roles that the F-22 currently performs, it could affect the need for the Raptor, leaving you wondering what its future role will be in a changing battlefield.
9. Changing Military Priorities & Needs
Military priorities can shift quickly: What is important today might not be the same tomorrow, affecting how the F-22 is viewed. With new challenges, the focus might shift to other capabilities leading to questions about whether the F-22 is still the right aircraft for the job.
The U.S. 7th Air Force has announced that F-22 Raptors from the 199th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron will be deployed to Osan Air Base in South Korea for training with the Republic of Korea Air Force to demonstrate the F-22’s capabilities, even as the Air Force plans to retire some older Block 20 models. (ref)
10. Complexity in Integrating New Technologies
Integrating new technologies into the F-22 is not a simple task. Unlike newer fighters, the Raptor wasn’t designed for easy upgrades. This is a problem because the systems were made when the Air Force expected a large fleet of Raptors that would mainly communicate with each other, not with other jets.
Instead of updating the software, the Raptor needs parts of its hardware replaced to match the advanced avionics of planes like the F-35. Plus, the F-22 can’t directly communicate with the F-35 and needs another platform to translate the signals between them.
On top of that, the Raptor’s radar-absorbent coating is prone to damage from high-speed flights, and fixing it is costly and takes time. (ref)
As the military focuses on new aircraft and changing priorities, the Raptor’s role may shift or even fade away. While it remains a powerful jet today, the F-22 will need to adapt to stay relevant in the years to come.
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Nancy Maffia
Nancy received a bachelor’s in biology from Elmira College and a master’s degree in horticulture and communications from the University of Kentucky. Worked in plant taxonomy at the University of Florida and the L. H. Bailey Hortorium at Cornell University, and wrote and edited gardening books at Rodale Press in Emmaus, PA. Her interests are plant identification, gardening, hiking, and reading.
